Geopolitical risks, market volatility, and tech firms involved in quantum computing

This study examines how global uncertainty influences the financial dynamics of technology firms involved in quantum computing, a strategically significant but structurally fragile segment of emerging deep-tech markets. Using daily data from January 2015 to May 2025, the analysis integrates principal component decomposition, panel regression, Granger causality testing and volatility diagnostics to assess the transmission of market volatility and geopolitical risk. The findings show that market volatility, proxied by the VIX index, exerts a persistent and adverse influence on stock returns, confirming its role as a systemic risk factor. Geopolitical risk, measured through the ACT and THREAT sub-indices of the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), also affects return behaviour, but through asymmetric and time-varying transmission mechanisms that emerge under heightened uncertainty and global strategic tension. The results further reveal heterogeneous vulnerability profiles across firms, indicating conditional risk spillovers rather than uniform market reactions. The study contributes new empirical evidence on the interplay between financial and geopolitical risk in advanced technology sectors and offers a replicable framework for uncertainty modelling in frontier markets.