The mechanisms and management strategies of ecosystem health in the water reception area of the yellow river diversion project in henan province based on the VORS model and machine learning

Ecosystem health (EH) holds significant value in balancing ecological sustainability with human well-being. Existing research in the Water Reception Area of the Yellow River Diversion Project in Henan Province lacks ecological security studies centered on ecosystem health. This study selected this area as the study area and used the Vigor-Organization-Resilience-Services (VORS) model, machine learning, and spatial analysis to quantify and analyze the evolution, driving mechanisms, and management strategies of ecosystem health at multiple spatiotemporal scales. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the multi-scale EH index exhibited an overall declining trend, with the most pronounced decrease observed at the grid scale. Spatially, EH displayed a pattern of higher values in the west and lower values in the east. (2) The digital elevation model (DEM) has the greatest impact on EH. The DEM, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and temperature (TMP) significantly influenced EH changes, with the DEM and TMP primarily having positive effects. The population density (POP) and gross domestic product (GDP) mainly have negative effects on EH changes. (3) In this study, driving factors exhibited a pronounced threshold effect on EH. From 2000 to 2020, DEM served as the primary driving factor, which had threshold values of 68.56, 66.72, and 64.82, respectively. (4) The study area was divided into four functional zones: ecological stability zone (52.76%), ecological conservation zone (25.84%), ecological restoration zone (20.99%), and ecological potential control zone (0.41%). Their corresponding extents within municipal and county-level administrative units were also identified. • The ecosystem health (EH) was assessed by integrating indicator system and ecological model into the VORS model. • The EH exhibited a declining trend, which was more pronounced at smaller scales. • DEM was identified as the primary driving factor influencing EH. • A transition zone of EH was observed around the elevation of 65 m. • A multi-scale management framework was established by integrating ecosystem health and service benefits.