Scylla and Charybdis in the Natuna Sea: All Eyes on the Future Course Set by Prabowo

Indonesia has long been adept at charting a delicate course between two regional giants, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States. A staunch security ally of Washington, participating in several joint military exchanges, Jakarta is simultaneously the largest Southeast Asian recipient of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This delicate balancing act has been described as a “double hedging strategy”. The results of the nation’s recent election, however, raise questions as to whether that precarious strategic balance will undergo a shift. Since the electoral victory of General (Ret.) Prabowo Subianto, analysts have been speculating as to how the new leader’s strong personality will be reflected in his strategic policy. This paper examines several factors that demand attention as we move forward, including Prabowo’s well-established realist approach to international relations; his record of boosting cooperation with the United States to counter the PRC’s expanding influence; his almost Nixonesque first visit to China; a focus on restoring Indonesia’s stature through military strength; and a shift of balance in the country’s civil-military relations. The ship of state has a new captain, and how deftly he navigates its continued sovereignty between the Scylla and Charybdis of regional and global superpowers promises to redefine Indonesia’s role on the world stage and impact the extent of its regional influence.