Exploring future production scenarios for Italian offshore wind power

Abstract. This study explores the potential of offshore wind energy in Italy by considering the planned offshore wind farms, their construction challenges, possible wake losses, and production based on historical data (by using ERA5 and CERRA dataset). An IEA 15 MW wind turbine was considered for all locations, since the turbine models have not yet been decided in the preliminary plans. A genetic algorithm was used to identify a tentative optimal layout able to maximize the minimum intra-turbine distance without considering the local wind rose, obtaining an estimate of wake losses for each planned farm. By means of Monte Carlo simulations, future energy scenarios are assessed, considering factors such as technical challenges, wind patterns, turbine characteristics, and array efficiency due to wake effects, offering valuable insights into the feasibility of the planned offshore wind energy in Italy or in other countries with similar wind resources.