Predictors of the Effectiveness of Psychedelics in Treating Depression—A Scoping Review

Psychedelic-assisted therapies (PATs) can produce rapid and sustained antidepressant effects, yet variability in response remains substantial. Identifying predictors and moderators is essential for optimising patient selection, preparation, and delivery. To map and synthesise the evidence on the predictors of antidepressant response to classic/serotonergic psychedelics administered with psychotherapeutic support in adults with depressive disorders, including treatment-resistant depression. Following PRISMA-ScR principles, we conducted a scoping review of major biomedical and psychology databases (PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science) and trial registries (searches September-October 2025), supplemented by reference-list screening. We included randomised trials, open-label studies, and naturalistic cohorts reporting associations between candidate predictors (baseline traits/clinical features, set/setting variables, acute in-session phenomenology, and biological measures) and validated depression outcomes. We charted study characteristics, analytic approaches (including moderation/mediation where available), and indicators of robustness (e.g., adjustment for overall intensity, preregistration, external validation). A total of 48 studies were included in the review. Across study designs, process-level features during the dosing session were the most consistent correlates of antidepressant improvement. Greater emotional breakthrough, mystical/unitive experiences, and ego dissolution-linked reappraisal/insight generally predicted larger and more durable symptom reductions, whereas anxiety-dominant or dysphoric states tended to attenuate benefit, often independent of overall subjective intensity. Set and setting-particularly a stronger therapeutic alliance and music experienced as resonant-predicted both the emergence of therapeutically salient acute experiences and downstream clinical gains. Baseline moderators showed smaller and mixed effects: PTSD comorbidity sometimes weakened trajectories; extensive prior psychedelic exposure was associated with smaller incremental gains; demographics were typically uninformative. Converging biological findings associated better outcomes with markers consistent with increased neural flexibility and plasticity (e.g., less segregated network dynamics; EEG indices), alongside peripheral changes implicating neurotrophic, inflammatory, and HPA axis pathways. Current evidence suggests that antidepressant response in PATs is driven less by static patient characteristics and more by what occurs during dosing and how the context shapes that experience. Optimising preparation, alliance, and music; facilitating emotional breakthrough and meaning making; and mitigating anxious dysregulation are actionable levers. Future trials should harmonise measures, pre-specify and validate moderators/mediators, intensively sample in-session experience and physiology, and report benefits and harms more consistently.