Millennial land carbon emissions in China offset by carbon sinks of the past four decades

China experienced substantial millennial-scale climate and anthropogenic land use changes, yet their combined impacts on land carbon dynamics remain largely unexamined. Here, we quantify spatiotemporal changes in terrestrial organic carbon over 851-2022 using a land surface model driven by reconstructed climate and land cover forcings. Simulated results show China's pre-industrial millennial land carbon dynamics aligned with global carbon stock and atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> fluctuations, such as the ~284 ppm peak in the 12th century linked to land use during the Medieval Climate Anomaly-warmed Song Dynasty. Notably, China's total land carbon emissions (13 ± 0.5 PgC) accounted for 22% of global land carbon emissions during 1700-1900, with Northeast and Southwest China experiencing the largest historical land carbon losses from intensive deforestation. Nevertheless, the 17.0 ± 1.7 PgC emissions during 851-1980 were fully offset by rapid carbon sinks over 1980-2022, driven by CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization and large-scale afforestation. These findings provide insights into China's historical land carbon dynamics, their underlying drivers, and global implications.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-02-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70049-3
Primary Topic
Tree-ring climate responses
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Millennial land carbon emissions in China offset by carbon sinks of the past four decades

Weizhe Chen, Kailiang Yu, N. Viovy, Liangcheng Tan et al.
Nature Communications
Tree-ring climate responses
article

Millennial land carbon emissions in China offset by carbon sinks of the past four decades

Weizhe Chen, Kailiang Yu, N. Viovy, Liangcheng Tan, Philippe Ciais, Shicheng Li
article en

Abstract

China experienced substantial millennial-scale climate and anthropogenic land use changes, yet their combined impacts on land carbon dynamics remain largely unexamined. Here, we quantify spatiotemporal changes in terrestrial organic carbon over 851-2022 using a land surface model driven by reconstructed climate and land cover forcings. Simulated results show China's pre-industrial millennial land carbon dynamics aligned with global carbon stock and atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> fluctuations, such as the ~284 ppm peak in the 12th century linked to land use during the Medieval Climate Anomaly-warmed Song Dynasty. Notably, China's total land carbon emissions (13 ± 0.5 PgC) accounted for 22% of global land carbon emissions during 1700-1900, with Northeast and Southwest China experiencing the largest historical land carbon losses from intensive deforestation. Nevertheless, the 17.0 ± 1.7 PgC emissions during 851-1980 were fully offset by rapid carbon sinks over 1980-2022, driven by CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization and large-scale afforestation. These findings provide insights into China's historical land carbon dynamics, their underlying drivers, and global implications.

Nature Communications
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR), Université Paris-Saclay (FR), China University of Geosciences (CN), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR), CEA Paris-Saclay (FR), Institute of Earth Environment (CN), Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grand Équipement National De Calcul Intensif
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 56%
Tree-ring climate responses
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