Evaluation of Multi-Branch River Hub Layout Schemes Based on Dynamic Weight-Cloud Model: A Case Study of the Ganjiang River

Optimizing layout schemes for multi-branch river hubs is complex due to the need to balance conflicting goals—safety, ecology, and economy—under significant uncertainty. To address these challenges, this study proposes a comprehensive evaluation method integrating a dynamic weighting mechanism and a two-dimensional cloud model. First, we constructed an evaluation index system covering engineering safety and benefits. A multi-agent game theory approach was employed for combination weighting to reconcile the diverse interests of government, environmental, and community agents. Furthermore, a dynamic mechanism was introduced to adjust indicator importance across three key stages: dam site selection, hub layout, and detail optimization. Subsequently, the schemes’ uncertainty and risk status were quantified using a two-dimensional cloud model within a “probability-loss” framework. The methodology was validated using the Ganjiang River Hub Project. The results demonstrate that the method effectively captures the evolutionary path of decision-making priorities, transitioning from “safety-first” in early stages to “benefit-maximization” later. This study provides robust, stage-aware, and visual decision support for complex hydraulic engineering layouts, ensuring a scientific trade-off between risk control and comprehensive benefits.