Assessment of lightning mortality in the United States from 1979 to 2023

Abstract Climate change has been linked to an increased prevalence of lightning activity associated with hazardous storm formation. An increased frequency in lightning activity in the United States (US) would presumably increase the risk and incidence for lightning-related injuries and fatalities. Using cause of death data available from the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and Prevention via their WONDER online databases and the National Weather Service, the results showed a steady decline in the lightning-related mortality incidence and incidence rates in the US from 1979 to 2023. In the early 1980s, US death rates were near four per 10 million, and are now near one per 10 million. Death rates in the American South are higher, but have also experienced improvement, having fallen from near six per 10 million in the early 1980s to two per 10 million in recent years. A limitation of this study is a lack of data on lightning-related injuries. Overall, the steady decline in lightning-related deaths in the US likely is related to a multitude of factors including early storm reporting, improved risk communication, improved public education regarding the hazard, increased urbanization and mechanization of outdoor work, improvements in emergency medical care, among other weather-related risk reduction strategies. These results highlight the success of risk reduction strategies for reducing lightning-associated mortality in the US while the threat of hazardous lightning has likely continued to increase.