Land degradation neutrality model and decision support system based on land use/land cover and climate change in the TR21 Thrace Region/Türkiye

Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) defines a management objective whereby the quantity and quality of land resources underpinning ecosystem functions and services are sustained or improved through time. In this study, an LDN model was developed for the TR21 Thrace Region, which holds significant agricultural production basins and natural land resources in Türkiye, to assess the degree of land degradation and to establish a Decision Support System (DSS) for sustainable land management. The model incorporates biophysical factors such as erosion, soil organic carbon (SOC), land productivity dynamics (LPD), and land use/land cover change (LULCC), along with a socio-economic indicator, land fragmentation (entropy), as a driving force. It first evaluated degradation levels for the period 1990–2023, followed by projections for 2050 based on future LULCC and climate change scenarios. The results indicate that rapid industrialization and urban expansion, particularly over agricultural lands are expected to continue exerting environmental pressure even under conservation-oriented planning scenarios. To mitigate and neutralize land degradation in agricultural areas, the DSS identified conservation agriculture practices, such as minimum tillage and crop rotation, as land management strategies. These practices are anticipated to reduce soil erosion and increase soil organic matter (SOM) content. In the final stage of the study, the results were presented in the web-GIS environment to serve as an example for policy makers, researchers and farmers in combating land degradation.