Regulation of the development of territorial natural and economic systems of agriculture: an approach based on a comprehensive index for model regions of North Asia

The article presents the results of a study aimed at developing a methodological approach to quantifying the development of territorial natural and economic systems (NES) of agriculture and identifying priorities for their regulation. The study covers the period from 2010 to 2022 and focuses on the cross-border territories of North Asia within Russia, selected by the authors as a model based on previous studies. A comprehensive NES development index has been developed that integrates 20 indicators across four blocks: agricultural production, agricultural economy, natural resources and the environment, and rural society. The methodology includes the stages of normalization of indicators, calculation of entropy to determine weights, quantification of the index, and development of scenarios using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The multidirectional dynamics of NES development was revealed: positive in the Republic of Tuva (complex index increase by 34%) and negative in the Republic of Buryatia (decrease by 17%) and the Zabaikalsky Krai (decrease by 23%). The scenario analysis identified the priority areas for regulating the development of NESs for each region. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of a comprehensive methodology adapted to the specific conditions of the model regions of North Asia. Based on the results, practical recommendations on the regulation of NES have been formulated, including measures to improve the standard of living of the rural population and optimize environmental management.