Precessional modulation of ENSO strength and spatial structure in a transient CGCM simulation of the past 3 million years

A past 3-million-year transient simulation with Community Earth System Model version 1.2 reveals precessional dominance in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability intensity and spatial structure. Under boreal winter-solstice perihelion (like late Holocene), basin-scale ENSO variability intensifies through strengthened thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, driven by a broad El Niño-like mean surface warming and enhanced tropical Pacific rainbands. Under boreal vernal-equinox perihelion, central-Pacific ENSO variability shifts eastward moderately, primarily due to intensified zonal advective feedback, following a strengthened background South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and interhemispherically opposing rainband changes. ENSO responses under boreal summer-solstice and autumn-equinox perihelion are contrastingly weaker. Consequently, both ENSO characteristics coevolve with the precession’s magnitude set by orbital eccentricity. Precessional modulation of ENSO progressively strengthened toward the present, mediated by a gradually intensified background SPCZ under greenhouse gas and ice-sheet forcings. We suggest that sea surface warming patterns and associated tropical rainbands are paramount in past ENSO changes.

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Publication Details

Journal
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Published
2026-02-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01355-2
Primary Topic
Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Precessional modulation of ENSO strength and spatial structure in a transient CGCM simulation of the past 3 million years

Gagan Mandal, Soong‐Ki Kim, Soon-Il An, Fei-Fei Jin et al.
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
article

Precessional modulation of ENSO strength and spatial structure in a transient CGCM simulation of the past 3 million years

Gagan Mandal, Soong‐Ki Kim, Soon-Il An, Fei-Fei Jin, Jong-Seong Kug, Chao Liu, Kyung-Sook Yun
article en

Abstract

A past 3-million-year transient simulation with Community Earth System Model version 1.2 reveals precessional dominance in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability intensity and spatial structure. Under boreal winter-solstice perihelion (like late Holocene), basin-scale ENSO variability intensifies through strengthened thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, driven by a broad El Niño-like mean surface warming and enhanced tropical Pacific rainbands. Under boreal vernal-equinox perihelion, central-Pacific ENSO variability shifts eastward moderately, primarily due to intensified zonal advective feedback, following a strengthened background South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and interhemispherically opposing rainband changes. ENSO responses under boreal summer-solstice and autumn-equinox perihelion are contrastingly weaker. Consequently, both ENSO characteristics coevolve with the precession’s magnitude set by orbital eccentricity. Precessional modulation of ENSO progressively strengthened toward the present, mediated by a gradually intensified background SPCZ under greenhouse gas and ice-sheet forcings. We suggest that sea surface warming patterns and associated tropical rainbands are paramount in past ENSO changes.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US), Planetary Science Institute (US), Seoul National University (KR), Yonsei University (KR), Yale University (US), Institute for Basic Science (KR), Pusan National University (KR)
National Research Foundation, Yonsei University, Korea Meteorological Administration, National Research Foundation of Korea
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 57%
Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
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