Precessional modulation of ENSO strength and spatial structure in a transient CGCM simulation of the past 3 million years
A past 3-million-year transient simulation with Community Earth System Model version 1.2 reveals precessional dominance in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability intensity and spatial structure. Under boreal winter-solstice perihelion (like late Holocene), basin-scale ENSO variability intensifies through strengthened thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks, driven by a broad El Niño-like mean surface warming and enhanced tropical Pacific rainbands. Under boreal vernal-equinox perihelion, central-Pacific ENSO variability shifts eastward moderately, primarily due to intensified zonal advective feedback, following a strengthened background South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and interhemispherically opposing rainband changes. ENSO responses under boreal summer-solstice and autumn-equinox perihelion are contrastingly weaker. Consequently, both ENSO characteristics coevolve with the precession’s magnitude set by orbital eccentricity. Precessional modulation of ENSO progressively strengthened toward the present, mediated by a gradually intensified background SPCZ under greenhouse gas and ice-sheet forcings. We suggest that sea surface warming patterns and associated tropical rainbands are paramount in past ENSO changes.
Authors
- Gagan Mandal (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9586-0665)
- Soong‐Ki Kim (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6586-780X)
- Soon-Il An
- Fei-Fei Jin
- Jong-Seong Kug
- Chao Liu
- Kyung-Sook Yun
Institutions
- University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US)
- Planetary Science Institute (US)
- Seoul National University (KR)
- Yonsei University (KR)
- Yale University (US)
- Institute for Basic Science (KR)
- Pusan National University (KR)
Publication Details
- Journal
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- Published
- 2026-02-26
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01355-2
- Primary Topic
- Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Research Foundation
- Yonsei University
- Korea Meteorological Administration
- National Research Foundation of Korea