Investor-Centric Policy Prioritization for Biomass Energy in Thailand: An Analytic Hierarchy Process Decision-Support Model

Thailand’s goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2050 and producing no emissions by 2065 requires their reliable renewable energy means to be expanded upon quickly. Biomass is an important resource for this. Even though there are many biomass power plants in Thailand, the further expansion of biomass energy is being held back by several problems, such as unclear rules and feedstock instability, which is worsening because of climate change. This study formulates an investor-focused Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework to rank the policy instruments that bolstered investor confidence in 2024–2025. Expert opinions were gathered through a Delphi-validated process and examined via eigenvector-based weighting and consistency checks. The findings indicate that law and regulatory policy is the most successful intervention (0.31), followed by economic incentives (0.24) and R&D support (0.18). Sub-criteria analysis reveals that regulatory clarity and the stability of feedstock supply—aggravated by climate-induced yield risks—are the predominant factors influencing investment decisions. Sensitivity analysis substantiates this ranking, indicating that fundamental regulatory reform is necessary to realize the full efficacy of financial or technological incentives. These results provide policymakers with a clear method to make decisions about how to align biomass roadmaps with the needs of the private sector. This will help emerging economies make a smooth and long-lasting transition to clean energy.