Climate Suitability Regionalization of Geographical Indication Rice in Xinjiang, China

As an important agricultural product in China’s Xinjiang, geographical indication rice holds significant value for the development of regional specialty agriculture and contributes to the growth of farmer income. Using the MaxEnt model, this study simulated its suitable cultivation areas. Results showed high model accuracy (mean AUC = 0.954) and identified precipitation factors—especially in the driest quarter and month—as dominant influences, with a combined contribution of 75.6% (bio_15 + bio_17 + bio_14 + bio_19). Historically, suitable areas were mainly in mid-western Northern Xinjiang and southwestern Tianshan, covering 43.23 × 104 km2. Under future climates, these areas are projected to expand significantly to 47.35–50.50 × 104 km2 by 2050, with moderate suitability zones growing most, based on projections from the BCC-CSM2-MR model. By 2070, moderate and high suitability areas increase further, extending toward mid-western Northern Xinjiang and northwestern Southern Xinjiang. The cultivation centroid showed phased shifts—moving northeast by 2050, then southwest by 2070 under SSP1-2.6. These findings support optimized rice cultivation planning in Xinjiang under climate change.