Lithium for the global energy transition: how global forces and national legacies are driving resource-based development in South America

• Lithium-rich states seek to leverage resources to build domestic capabilities and escape extractivist traps. • External forces enable options, but domestic history and institutions ultimately drive resource-based development strategies. • Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina have followed distinct lithium-based development strategies. • We trace historical sequences and critical junctures explaining key moments of change and continuity within and across cases. • Shifting governance logics show how resource-rich countries navigate risks and opportunities in the energy transition. Minerals are central to the global energy transition, and resource-rich countries increasingly view this context as a window of opportunity for development. Yet, despite broadly shared objectives, they have adopted markedly different strategies in terms of their goals, scope, policy instruments, and the balance of authority between state and market actors. Focusing on the case of lithium in Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina, this article firstly develops a typology of lithium-based development strategies: Neoliberal, State-led, and Hybrid. Secondly, it traces the evolution of these strategies and explains their divergence through the interplay between external forces –such as international development paradigms and technological or market dynamics– and domestic historical legacies. While external factors may favour certain strategic orientations, we argue that domestic institutional legacies have been decisive in defining the scope and direction of state action. The study provides new insights into how resource-rich countries manage the challenges and opportunities of the energy transition by navigating the complex interaction between international pressures and domestic constraints to reposition themselves within global supply chains.