Water Resource Management in Wetland: Developing a Predictive Model for Climate Resilience in the Pantanello Natural Park, Italy

The Pantanello Natural Park (Pontine territory, Central Italy) is the result of a rewetting project that created five para-natural basins and new habitats at the foot of the Lepini Mountains (Monumento Naturale Giardino di Ninfa). In the present paper, we describe the hydrological model implemented by using data and information from the plan project, high-resolution topographic data (Lidar), and monthly meteorological and climatic data from 2010 to 2020. The model is designed to identify the conditions necessary for effective water-resource management, a key factor for ensuring the long-term success of rewetting interventions and the ecosystem services they support. The recent water crisis, primarily caused by increased use of the spring that feeds both the wetland system and the local population, has significantly affected the ecosystem. The use of the model highlights that, in 53% of cases, the system condition is dry when no external supply is considered. We found a huge improvement: considering a supply of 10 L/s from April to September, the proportion of dry cases reduces to 10%, highlighting the substantial benefits of targeted water supply management.