Climate‐Driven Changes in Wildfire Seasonality Across North America

Abstract Climate change alters the frequency and intensity of wildfires, but its impact on the seasonal patterns of wildfires remains underexplored. Here, we quantify historical changes in wildfire seasonality across different ecoregions in North America and assess how climate change may affect these seasonal patterns. Our study finds that boreal and taiga forests have experienced a clear advance in seasonal wildfire activity, whereas Mediterranean and desert regions show delayed and extended late‐season burning. Prairie and humid forest regions exhibit comparatively muted change. Attribution analysis shows that atmospheric dryness is the dominant control, while antecedent temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture indirectly shape wildfire risk through vegetation and fuel continuity at different lag times. These findings provide a basis for interpreting future region‐specific changes in wildfire seasonality and emphasize the need for region‐specific assessments of future wildfire activity.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2026-02-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl121153
Primary Topic
Fire effects on ecosystems
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Climate‐Driven Changes in Wildfire Seasonality Across North America

Chenliang Tao, Yu Zhang, Fanglu Fan, Hongliang Zhang et al.
Geophysical Research Letters
Fire effects on ecosystems
article

Climate‐Driven Changes in Wildfire Seasonality Across North America

Chenliang Tao, Yu Zhang, Fanglu Fan, Hongliang Zhang, Drew Shindell
article en

Abstract

Abstract Climate change alters the frequency and intensity of wildfires, but its impact on the seasonal patterns of wildfires remains underexplored. Here, we quantify historical changes in wildfire seasonality across different ecoregions in North America and assess how climate change may affect these seasonal patterns. Our study finds that boreal and taiga forests have experienced a clear advance in seasonal wildfire activity, whereas Mediterranean and desert regions show delayed and extended late‐season burning. Prairie and humid forest regions exhibit comparatively muted change. Attribution analysis shows that atmospheric dryness is the dominant control, while antecedent temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture indirectly shape wildfire risk through vegetation and fuel continuity at different lag times. These findings provide a basis for interpreting future region‐specific changes in wildfire seasonality and emphasize the need for region‐specific assessments of future wildfire activity.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 53(4)
University of Shanghai for Science and Technology (CN), Duke University (US), Qingdao Binhai University (CN), Fudan University (CN)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 51%
Fire effects on ecosystems
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