Toward a mechanistic characterisation of marine heatwaves

A mechanistic understanding of marine heatwaves (MHWs) requires robust frameworks for detection, tracking, and attribution. Conventional pointwise definitions, which identify MHWs pixel by pixel relative to fixed thresholds, have enabled global analyses but neglect the event-scale spatiotemporal evolution and underlying drivers. Recent kinematic approaches overcome the evolution issue by treating MHWs as evolving spatiotemporal objects. Here, we build on this framework by also considering the drivers. We examine the MHW dynamics by quantifying the scale and driver dependence of MHW objects, identifying dominant forcing mechanisms throughout their lifetimes, and characterising key features linked to distinct drivers. We further introduce a normalisation framework that preserves the event scale, while enabling composite analyses across multiple MHWs. Applying this approach to the Tasman Sea, a region of complex atmosphere-ocean interactions, we reveal distinct atmospheric and oceanic conditions that shape the MHW evolution at different stages. By explicitly linking evolving MHW entities to their physical drivers, our method advances the mechanistic characterisation of MHWs, enhances understanding of their spatiotemporal dynamics, and informs prospects for improved prediction.

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Publication Details

Journal
Scientific Reports
Published
2026-02-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-40354-4
Primary Topic
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

Toward a mechanistic characterisation of marine heatwaves

Martina A. Doblin, Zijie Zhao, Claire M. Spillman, Sophie Cravatte et al.
Scientific Reports
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
article

Toward a mechanistic characterisation of marine heatwaves

Martina A. Doblin, Zijie Zhao, Claire M. Spillman, Sophie Cravatte, Andrew E. Kiss, Erik Behrens, Alex Sen Gupta, Neil J. Holbrook, Ming Feng, Jules B. Kajtar, Antonietta Capotondi
article en

Abstract

A mechanistic understanding of marine heatwaves (MHWs) requires robust frameworks for detection, tracking, and attribution. Conventional pointwise definitions, which identify MHWs pixel by pixel relative to fixed thresholds, have enabled global analyses but neglect the event-scale spatiotemporal evolution and underlying drivers. Recent kinematic approaches overcome the evolution issue by treating MHWs as evolving spatiotemporal objects. Here, we build on this framework by also considering the drivers. We examine the MHW dynamics by quantifying the scale and driver dependence of MHW objects, identifying dominant forcing mechanisms throughout their lifetimes, and characterising key features linked to distinct drivers. We further introduce a normalisation framework that preserves the event scale, while enabling composite analyses across multiple MHWs. Applying this approach to the Tasman Sea, a region of complex atmosphere-ocean interactions, we reveal distinct atmospheric and oceanic conditions that shape the MHW evolution at different stages. By explicitly linking evolving MHW entities to their physical drivers, our method advances the mechanistic characterisation of MHWs, enhances understanding of their spatiotemporal dynamics, and informs prospects for improved prediction.

Scientific Reports
University of Technology Sydney (AU), Australian National University (AU), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU), Bureau of Meteorology (AU), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Tasmania (AU), Statistics New Zealand (NZ), Australian Antarctic Division (AU), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (FR), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US), Université Fédérale de Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées (FR), University of Colorado Boulder (US), National Oceanography Centre (GB), University of California, Irvine (US), UNSW Sydney (AU), Education New Zealand (NZ), Laboratoire d’Études en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (FR), ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (AU), NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (US), Sydney Institute of Marine Science (AU), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
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Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
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