Ageing in a warming world: Projecting heating and cooling demands for elderly housing in norway – A case study

• Rising temperatures drive the need to forecast energy demand in elderly housing • UBEM simulations used future weather data under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios • Heating demand may fall by 19%, while peak cooling loads could rise by 34% • Cooling events will be longer and more frequent, stressing existing systems • Results guide adaptive design to protect the elderly's comfort in a warmer future. As climate change raises temperatures, projecting future building energy demand is crucial for adaptation, mitigation, and resilient infrastructure and energy systems. This is intensified by Europe’s ageing population, including Norway, where more elderly residents will increase demand for elderly housing and vulnerability to thermal stress. This study examines how climate change affects the energy demand while ensuring thermal comfort of the elderly in newly built elderly housing in Baerum Municipality, Norway. Urban Building Energy Modelling was used to simulate heating and cooling energy demand in two elderly housing complexes under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 5 climate scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the 2030s-2060s. Custom weather datasets included a 2023 Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) for calibration, a Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) baseline, and future weather files for different greenhouse gas trajectories. Contemporary and projected extreme weather data were generated to assess building energy performance under current and severe climate conditions. The RCP 8.5 scenario is projected to reduce heating demand by up to 19% by the 2060s, while the RCP 2.6 scenario reduces it by about 9% relative to historical data from 2000 to 2020. Peak cooling demand is forecasted to increase by 34% by the 2060swith more frequent and longer cooling events. This indicates a growing need for infrastructure improvements to meet future energy demands. Understanding these shifts in energy demand is crucial for preparedness to ensure the well-being and thermal comfort of elderly populations.