Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), an international research initiative organized by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Program from 2013 to 2022, aimed to markedly enhance environmental prediction capabilities in the polar regions and beyond, particularly in the context of a rapidly changing climate. YOPP achieved this through a concerted effort in observation, modeling, verification, user engagement, and educational activities. This article offers a comprehensive overview of YOPP’s key outcomes and impacts, using a dual approach that merges qualitative success stories with quantitative metrics. Scientifically, the focus is on the role of polar observations in improving prediction accuracy, enhanced understanding of processes to support model development, advancements in forecast verification, particularly in sea ice prediction, an improved understanding of the interconnections between polar and midlatitude regions, and effective user engagement. This paper also discusses how these scientific discoveries have been converted into practical applications, emphasizing the route from science to services. Additionally, it summarizes the education, communication, outreach, and coordination efforts employed to maximize YOPP’s impact. Finally, the article provides a series of recommendations for future research, informed by the insights gained from YOPP’s experiences and recent radical developments in technology. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) was a landmark initiative aimed at enhancing our ability to predict environmental changes in the polar regions, areas that are increasingly affected by climate change. By integrating global efforts in observation, modeling, and data analysis, YOPP has significantly contributed to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts in these critical zones, and beyond. These advancements matter because they provide crucial insights into polar processes along with their remote impacts, enhance global prediction models, and inform stakeholders about predictive capabilities. The project’s focus on user engagement and education ensures that these scientific achievements translate into practical benefits. The collaborative spirit of YOPP exemplifies how international scientific cooperation can address some of the most pressing environmental challenges of our time. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

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Publication Details

Journal
MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society)
Published
2025-12-01
Primary Topic
Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
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article
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Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

J. Inoue, M. Lamers, B. Casati, V. Heinrich et al.
MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society)
Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
article

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

J. Inoue, M. Lamers, B. Casati, V. Heinrich, R. Grumbine, D. Liggett, D. Bromwich, H. Goessling, K. Werner, G. Svensson, C. Eayrs, J. R. Wilson, T. Jung, E. Bazile, V. Smolyanitsky, I. Renfrew, J. Day, J. Kristiansen, E. De Coning, P. Bauer, G. Smith, D. Perovich, S. L. Olsen, I. Sandu, S. Khalsa, M. Shupe, T. Uttal, Q. Yang, Q. Sun, O. Godoy
article en

Abstract

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), an international research initiative organized by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Program from 2013 to 2022, aimed to markedly enhance environmental prediction capabilities in the polar regions and beyond, particularly in the context of a rapidly changing climate. YOPP achieved this through a concerted effort in observation, modeling, verification, user engagement, and educational activities. This article offers a comprehensive overview of YOPP’s key outcomes and impacts, using a dual approach that merges qualitative success stories with quantitative metrics. Scientifically, the focus is on the role of polar observations in improving prediction accuracy, enhanced understanding of processes to support model development, advancements in forecast verification, particularly in sea ice prediction, an improved understanding of the interconnections between polar and midlatitude regions, and effective user engagement. This paper also discusses how these scientific discoveries have been converted into practical applications, emphasizing the route from science to services. Additionally, it summarizes the education, communication, outreach, and coordination efforts employed to maximize YOPP’s impact. Finally, the article provides a series of recommendations for future research, informed by the insights gained from YOPP’s experiences and recent radical developments in technology. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) was a landmark initiative aimed at enhancing our ability to predict environmental changes in the polar regions, areas that are increasingly affected by climate change. By integrating global efforts in observation, modeling, and data analysis, YOPP has significantly contributed to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasts in these critical zones, and beyond. These advancements matter because they provide crucial insights into polar processes along with their remote impacts, enhance global prediction models, and inform stakeholders about predictive capabilities. The project’s focus on user engagement and education ensures that these scientific achievements translate into practical benefits. The collaborative spirit of YOPP exemplifies how international scientific cooperation can address some of the most pressing environmental challenges of our time. © 2025 American Meteorological Society.

MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 28%
Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
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