Predicting success in vocational education and training: Insights from literature

Cognitive and non-cognitive abilities, along with prior academic attainment, are well-established predictors of academic achievement, but much less is known about how these variables relate to outcomes in vocational pathways. This article reports a scoping review of the existing literature on predictors of success in vocational education and training. A total of 113 studies were screened, of which 18 studies met the inclusion criteria for detailed review. Prior attainment and general cognitive ability emerged as consistent predictors of vocational success, although their associations were typically weaker and more variable than in academic pathways. Specific cognitive abilities (e.g., verbal, numerical, and spatial abilities) were most predictive when they aligned with the demands of particular vocational areas. Among non-cognitive traits, the Conscientiousness personality facet showed robust associations with vocational attainment, persistence, and satisfaction, while vocational interests, motivation, behavioural engagement, and social-emotional competencies made smaller but meaningful contributions. Overall, the findings suggest that vocational achievement is multidimensional and domain-specific, shaped by combinations of cognitive, non-cognitive, and prior attainment factors, rather than any single indicator.