Evaluating the consistency between Ireland’s carbon budget-aligned energy system pathways and EU energy and climate targets

Abstract Ireland’s climate legislation mandates greenhouse gas reductions consistent with the Paris Agreement, implemented through legally binding carbon budgets (CBs) targeting a 51% reduction by 2030, relative to 2018, and climate neutrality by 2050. As an EU Member State, Ireland must also meet obligations under European climate and energy legislation, including the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED), and the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR). The extent to which national policy frameworks, such as Ireland’s domestic CBs, align with EU obligations is underexplored. This study assesses the alignment of Ireland’s energy system decarbonisation pathways—developed using the TIMES-Ireland model (TIM) and aligned with approved and adopted national CBs—with EU climate and energy targets for 2030 and 2040. The analysis focuses on a composite ‘ TIM-CBaligned ’ pathway, representing the weighted average of scenarios underpinning Ireland’s third and fourth CB proposals, alongside current and planned policy scenarios. Results show that TIM-CBaligned outperforms the 2030 EU ETS target in power and industry sectors by 24% and exceeds the indicative EU-2040 benchmark for energy emissions by 68%. ESR compliance is achievable only with significant agricultural mitigation; otherwise, non-compliance persists even with use of flexibilities. Final energy consumption in 2030 falls 6% short of the EED target, although low energy demand scenarios help to close the gap. These findings confirm that ambitious, CB-aligned energy pathways can deliver strong coherence between national and EU climate goals, in line with literature on multilevel climate governance. However, they also highlight the persistent risk that underperformance in non-energy sectors undermines overall compliance, which is particularly pertinent for countries with a high share of emissions from agriculture. Policy coherence requires sustained investment, accelerated demand reduction, and integrated planning across all sectors. This study contributes a novel, quantitative example of national–EU target alignment, addressing a recognised gap in the literature and providing evidence to inform both domestic and EU policy debates.