Beyond the ballot box: the effect of election violence on electoral participation in Africa

Abstract How does fear of election violence affect electoral participation? We study how fear of election violence affects different forms of political participation important during electoral processes in African democracies. While the literature has focused almost exclusively on the way that election violence impedes voting, we argue that voting is not the only or even the most affected form of participation depressed by fear of violence. Instead, fear of violence is more likely to depress key pre-electoral forms of participation, such as campaign participation and public political deliberation. Empirically, we rely on experimental and observational survey data of almost 3,000 randomly selected respondents in Lusaka, Zambia. We find that respondents report a lower willingness to engage in pre-electoral forms of participation when the hypothetical electoral environment is more violent. When such violence is present, they also assess the physical risk of participating in such activities as higher. Moreover, violence reduces pre-electoral forms of participation more than turnout. We corroborate these survey experimental findings with observational data. Our findings contribute to a fuller appreciation of the way that violence erodes the quality of democracy and exacerbates political inequalities.