The Fatal Illusion of Negotiating with Tehran A normative policy analysis examining the strategic implications of Western engagement with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Abstract This normative policy analysis argues that continued diplomatic engagement with the Islamic Republic of Iran constitutes a strategic miscalculation in light of the regime’s deepening legitimacy crisis and systematic repression. It contends that recent nationwide protests, initially triggered by economic collapse, have evolved into a coherent political movement demanding structural transformation. The study challenges prevailing Western assumptions about regime rationality and the stabilizing potential of negotiations, conceptualizing Tehran’s approach as “attritional diplomacy” designed to prolong survival rather than resolve disputes. By analyzing patterns of repression, negotiation cycles, and Western policy responses, the paper maintains that engagement under current conditions reinforces coercive structures and undermines popular democratic aspirations. It concludes that policymakers face a strategic and moral crossroads, requiring a reassessment of existing diplomatic frameworks and consideration of alternative policy options.