Reveal the deployable solar energy potential and emission reduction benefits in the arid areas of Xinjiang

Photovoltaic (PV) development in arid regions faces challenges such as sparse observational data, insufficient consideration of natural environmental heterogeneity, and a disconnect between site suitability assessments and actual power generation potential. To address these issues, this study integrates ERA5-Land reanalysis data, ESA CCI land cover data, DEM terrain data, and PV site information to construct a land suitability factor ranging from 0 to 1. Coupled with the Photovoltaic Library Python model(PVLIB-Python), a comprehensive assessment framework is established, spanning from site suitability to power generation potential and emission reduction benefits.Results show that Xinjiang’s theoretical PV generation potential from 2015 to 2025 averages approximately 113.5 PWh per year. After applying land suitability constraints, the technical potential decreases to 71.4 PWh annually, representing about 63% of the theoretical potential. Spatially, suitability follows a pattern of “concentration in basins and dispersion in mountainous areas,” with highly suitable zones mainly located in the central-western Tarim Basin, the Hami Basin, and the southern edge of the Junggar Basin.Based on the calculated technical potential, annual PV deployment could achieve around 53.5 billion tonnes of CO2 emission reductions.Incorporating environmental benefits significantly lowers the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for PV systems, demonstrating considerable net social value. This study provides quantitative evidence to support the scientific planning of PV power stations in Xinjiang and the formulation of carbon neutrality pathways.