Can correcting misperceptions of ingroup attitudes build support for peace? Experimental evidence from South Sudan

Abstract Do individuals in conflict settings misperceive the extent to which their ingroup supports peace? If so, what drives these misperceptions, and can correcting them build further support for peace? To answer these questions, I conduct survey experiments in South Sudan in the midst of ongoing conflict. I document large misperceptions of ingroup pro-peace attitudes, with the average respondent substantially underestimating support for peace within their group. I also show that underestimation is greatest among individuals who have less access to information. However, providing information about rates of pro-peace ingroup attitudes does not cause individuals to update their perceptions of ingroup attitudes, and it therefore has no impact on individuals’ own attitudes. Exploring mechanisms, I provide evidence that the most likely reason individuals do not update their perceptions of ingroup attitudes is that they do not believe the information they are provided. The findings suggest that it is common for individuals in conflict settings to underestimate the extent to which their ingroup supports peace, but correcting these misperceptions is not straightforward. More generally, the results underscore the difficulty of building pro-peace attitudes in conflict-affected settings through information provision.