IMPACT OF INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ON MANUFACTURING SECTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN NIGERIA

Abstract This study examines the impact of industrial electricity consumption on average manufacturing sector productivity in Nigeria, motivated by persistent power supply challenges and mixed empirical evidence on the electricity–productivity nexus. Covering the period 1989–2024, the study adopts the Kümmel Capital–Labour–Energy–Creativity (CLEC) framework and employs both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) techniques to capture long-run, short-run, and asymmetric dynamics. The results reveal a positive long-run effect of industrial electricity consumption on manufacturing productivity, while short-run effects are negative, reflecting adjustment costs and supply inefficiencies. Industrial electricity price shows a positive long-run association, suggesting that cost-reflective tariffs may improve supply reliability. Asymmetric findings indicate that efficiency adjustments matter more than mere expansion of electricity use. The study concludes that electricity contributes to productivity under stable conditions and recommends improved infrastructure investment, efficient tariff design, and policies promoting energy reliability and technological upgrading in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector.