Telecoupling of governance systems under the EU deforestation regulation: Scenarios for the Brazilian beef and soy value chains

Commodity imports by the European Union (EU) are an important driver of land use change in agricultural producer countries. The new EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) encompasses seven relevant commodities that can only enter the EU market if they are certified deforestation-free. The EUDR may lead to changes in land use governance and value chain governance of major trading partner countries, which can be described as telecoupling at the policy level. This study develops ‘telecoupling of governance systems’ conceptually and presents a generally applicable framework. The framework is then applied to the EUDR. Based on document analyses and expert interviews, we discuss four possible scenarios of the varying impacts of the EUDR on forest conservation. If only the private sector adapts to EUDR, a ‘business as unusual’ scenario is likely to prevail, which can turn into a ‘higher, faster, further together’ scenario if coupled with public policies. If other countries such as China adopt similar measures, it can lead to a ‘third-party game changer’ or even a ‘telecoupled revolution’ for environmental governance systems in Brazil. However, the experience with the EUDR in Brazil so far is mixed. On the one hand, telecoupling between environmental governance systems can be made difficult through non-participatory processes and domestic and international economic and political situations, which can lead to rejections in producer countries. On the other hand, telecoupling between environmental governance systems can have a significant impact on deforestation if linked to national systems and supported by international cooperation and coordination. • The concept for ‘telecoupling of governance systems’ is being developed. • A generally applicable conceptual framework is applied on the EUDR. • Four scenarios show that telecoupling of governance systems can affect deforestation in Brazil to varying degrees. • This depends on synergies between public and private actors' responses and similar regulations in other importing countries.