Quality vs. Populism in Short-Video Political Communication: A Multimodal Study of TikTok

The article examines how framing and actor identity structure attention in short-video politics using a country-level corpus from Ecuador. It assembles 4612 public TikTok videos from official accounts and politically salient hashtags, extracts multimodal text via automatic speech recognition and on-screen OCR, and constructs two continuous indices: a quality index (programmatic, efficacy-oriented content) and a populism index (antagonistic, people-versus-elite cues). Engagement is modeled as a fractional response (binomial GLM with logit link), with robustness checks using OLS on logit(ER) and Poisson counts with an offset for log(plays + 1). Models include affect (positive sentiment and anger), hour/day controls, and actor fixed effects (leader, creator, institution, party, and media). The indices display construct validity: quality aligns with positive/joyful tone and populism with anger. Net of controls, populism is positively and consistently associated with engagement across estimators; quality is small and often null or negative. Effects are heterogeneous: leaders gain under both frames, creators primarily under populism, and media modestly under populism, while institutions face penalties under both, and parties show limited returns. Monthly series reveal event-linked intensification of populism, and hashtag networks are modular, mapping onto institutional, partisan, and creator ecosystems. A design analysis identifies a non-populist pathway—benefit-first micro-explanations, concise captions, targeted hashtags, and joyful/efficacy affect—that raises engagement without antagonism. The study contributes a reproducible, open-source pipeline for survey-free, multimodal framing measurement and clarifies how persona × frame interactions and meso-level discursive structure jointly organize attention in short-video politics.