Does social media engagement really build brand loyalty? Evidence of short-term null effects in emerging markets

Introduction This study investigates the relationship between social media engagement and brand loyalty in emerging markets, with particular attention to the potential mediating role of brand trust. Although prior research generally assumes a positive link between engagement and loyalty, empirical evidence based on high-frequency panel data remains limited, especially in emerging market contexts. Methods Grounded in the Stimulus–Organism–Response framework and Social Exchange Theory, we develop and empirically test a conceptual model using panel data from five global brands operating in five emerging market countries over a 24-week period. The dataset comprises 575 brand–country–week observations. Fixed effects regression models with clustered standard errors are employed to account for unobserved heterogeneity and within-unit dependence. Results The empirical results reveal no statistically significant relationships among social media engagement, brand trust, and brand loyalty across all hypothesized paths. These findings indicate that short-term weekly fluctuations in social media engagement do not generate immediate effects on brand trust or loyalty in emerging market settings. Discussion Rather than reinforcing conventional assumptions regarding engagement effectiveness, this study highlights a potential disconnect between commonly used engagement metrics and relationship-building outcomes when examined through high-frequency data. The null findings contribute to the literature by questioning linear and short-term functional form assumptions in engagement–loyalty relationships. Methodologically, the study demonstrates the value of rigorous panel data approaches in addressing unobserved heterogeneity in social media marketing research.