Eating healthy within the boundaries of one planet: case study for the Netherlands

The current Dutch diet fails to meet existing nutritional guidelines and exceeds the environmental boundaries as defined by the EAT-Lancet Commission. The purpose of this study is to model planet-based diets for the Netherlands for 2030 and 2050 that are in line with national dietary recommendations and within the planetary boundaries, as input for future Food-System Based Dietary Guidelines. Future Dutch planet-based diets were modelled using mathematical optimisation (Optimeal 3.0) with the most recent 2019–2021 food consumption survey for males and females (18–50 years) and the environmental impact database for Dutch foods (2024). Environmental impacts were adjusted to align with the planetary boundaries and incorporate forecasted improvements. Constraints were applied on nutrients and environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions in kg CO2eq/y, blue water use in m3/y, cropland use in hectares, phosphorus application and surplus nitrogen in kg/y). The ReCiPe 2016 endpoint indicator method was applied to calculate biodiversity loss related to diets (extinctions/ million species year). The optimised diets resulted in a significant reduction in meat, eggs, fats/oils, potatoes/tubers, and sugar/confectionery, and a significant increase in legumes, nuts/seeds, vegetables, fish, and meat replacers. In the optimised diets, 64% of total protein is plant-based substantial higher than the 43% in the current diet. These dietary changes led to a 65% lower impact on species richness loss and a diet within five planetary boundaries. A healthy and sustainable diet within the boundaries of one planet is possible, if we manage to reduce food waste, shift to more sustainable production methods, and change our diets. This study shows the urgent need for policymakers to take big steps in the five years leading up to 2030. The results of this study could contribute to more sustainable dietary guidelines and eating habits in the Netherlands and could be an example for other countries.