Centripetal cities in the post-Industrial era

Chinese cities have entered the post-industrial era. Optimizing urban spatial structure to empower the service sector is crucial for future economic growth. This paper examines the relationship between service sector development and urban spatial form from the perspective of global patterns of spatial evolution. We find that over the past decade, large cities in advanced economies have become more centripetal, shifting toward monocentric structures. Producer services tend to promote polycentricity, while consumer services strengthen centripetal structure. The rising share of employment in consumer services is the main driver of the recent centripetal trend in large cities of developed countries. Currently, large Chinese cities are in a producer service led polycentric phase. As the share of services rises further, the expansion of consumer services will likely trigger a return to a more centripetal organization. Therefore, urban planning and policy in China should accommodate the post-industrial tendency for population to concentrate in central urban areas.