Risk factor analysis and nomogram model construction for mortality in patients following colonic perforation surgery

The predictive model for postoperative mortality in patients with colonic perforation, which is based on four indicators (APACHE II score, lactate level, WBC count, and PVG presence), demonstrates strong predictive performance. The dual cut-off pathway (0.020 high-sensitivity screen + 0.121 resource-efficient confirmation) markedly reduced intensive care unit resource use while maintaining high sensitivity (95.2%). This investigation offers a replicable decision-making tool that can be integrated into information systems for future prospective studies.