Simplifying Daily Cortisol Cycle Analysis: Validation and Benchmarking of the Cortisol Sine Score Against Cosinor and JTK_CYCLE models

The daily cortisol cycle is a critical indicator of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis function. The current analytical approaches produce several outputs difficult to integrate into simple statistical models, clinical workflows, and ML/AI pipelines requiring single-value inputs. We developed the Cortisol Sine Score (CSS), a model-free scalar metric that quantifies daily cortisol exposure by computing a weighted sum of cortisol measurements across the day, using sine-transformed time-of-day weights. The CSS produces positive values for morning-dominant patterns, negative values for evening-shifted profiles, and near-zero values for flattened rhythms characteristic of chronic stress and circadian disruption. We validated the CSS performance in 3,006 samples from 501 pregnant women enrolled in the March of Dimes program, with cortisol values measured at 6 time points per day collected during the second trimester of pregnancy. The CSS showed strong correlations with observed and model-estimated amplitude and acrophase from Cosinor regression and JTK_CYCLE approaches, with excellent classifying performance (AUC=0.89, high versus low). The CSS successfully captured established associations between social disadvantage and cortisol dysregulation, and demonstrated utility in predicting gut microbiome composition in metagenomic analyses. Importantly, the CSS maintains excellent fidelity to the full 6-sample protocol with as few as 3-4 daily measurements. The 4-sample protocol achieves great performance (r = 0.952, MAE = 0.087) while reducing participant burden. The 06:00 time point was identified as essential for accurate CSS quantification. The CSS bridges the gap between circadian analysis and practical implementation by providing a simple, interpretable, and robust assessment of cortisol daily cycle in large-scale epidemiological studies, clinical screening, and biomedical sensors.