Data-Driven Electricity Load Analysis in Smart Buildings: A Multi-Driver Automatic Dependency Disaggregation Approach

Disaggregating end-use electricity consumption from aggregate meter data remains a fundamental challenge in non-intrusive load monitoring, particularly in smart buildings where heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems dominate demand and direct sub-metering is often unavailable. Contextual variables such as weather and calendar information provide valuable explanatory signals, but in low-frequency settings, these drivers are typically insufficient to fully characterise building operation. As a result, attribution strategies that implicitly assume complete explainability can lead to unstable driver contributions and reduced physical interpretability when building behaviour is non-stationary or partially unobserved. This paper introduces MD-ADD, a multi-driver automatic dependency disaggregation framework designed for low-frequency smart meter data in commercial and public buildings. The framework supports joint attribution of multiple contextual drivers. It explicitly represents unexplained energy as a meaningful component of the decomposition. It combines robust baseline estimation, leakage-resistant out-of-fold contextual modelling, conservative driver attribution without hard mass-balance constraints, and uncertainty quantification using block bootstrap resampling. A consistency mechanism is included to restrict driver attributions to temporal scales compatible with their expected physical influence. The framework is evaluated on the ADRENALIN Load Disaggregation Challenge dataset, which contains multi-resolution electricity and weather data from commercial and public buildings, using normalized mean absolute error alongside stability and residual-structure diagnostics. Rather than optimising solely for pointwise accuracy, the proposed formulation emphasises robustness, interpretability, and diagnostic transparency, making it suitable for decision-support and analytical workflows under realistic low-frequency monitoring conditions.