Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Clustering of Varicella in the Border City of Baise, Southwest China, 2010–2024

Hongyan Tian,1,2,* Danjie Liang,1,* Zhi Nong,2 Siyi Huang,2 Yang Li,1 Guangzi Qi1,3,4 1School of Public Health, Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities, Baise, Guangxi, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Disease Control, Baise Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Baise, Guangxi, People’s Republic of China; 3Key Laboratory of Environmental and Population Health Research, Ecological Aluminum Industrial Base of Guangxi Universities, Baise, Guangxi, People’s Republic of China; 4Key Laboratory for Environmental Pollution and Health Risk Assessment, Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities, Baise, Guangxi, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Yang Li, School of Public Health, Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities, Baise, Guangxi, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected] Guangzi Qi, School of Public Health, Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities, Baise, Guangxi, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected]: We analyzed the epidemiological trends and spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of varicella incidence in Baise City from 2010 to 2024 to provide a basis for its prevention and control.Methods: This study describes the epidemiological characteristics of varicella from population, temporal and spatial perspectives by using data from the National Infectious Disease Reporting System. Trend and spatial autocorrelation analyses and spatiotemporal scanning statistics were employed to determine the spatial clustering and spatiotemporal dynamics for the incidence of varicella.Results: About 54,969 cases of varicella were reported during the study period, with an annual incidence rate of 102.30 per 100,000, and an annual percentage change of 10.05% (95% CI: 1.10% to 19.79%; P = 0.027). The male-to-female ratio was 1.23:1, with the peak incidence occurring among in the 5– 9 age group and the 10– 19 age group showed an upward trend in incidence. People under 20 years old had the highest incidence rates of varicella and students accounted for more than half of the cases (55.46%), and 45.19% of townships had an average annual incidence rate exceeding the city’s average level. There was a Positive spatial autocorrelation was observed in the varicella incidence across different townships, with a pattern of high-value clustering. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis identified a total of 117 hot spots. Spatiotemporal scanning identified five significant clusters, these included a Most likely cluster of 27 towns in the Youjiang River Valley and secondary clusters in the northwestern mountainous regions of Baise.Conclusion: The reported incidence rate of varicella in Baise was on the rise, exhibiting distinct spatio-temporal clustering characteristics. Hotspots were aligned with the spatio-temporal clustering zones. Strengthening prevention and control measures in local areas where clusters and hotspots of varicella occur can be an effective strategy to decrease its incidence in a city.Keywords: varicella, epidemiological characteristics, epidemic trends, spatial autocorrelation, spatiotemporal clustering