Global Block Formation? Implications of the New World (Dis)Order for Europe

The world order is changing, with the outcome uncertain. What power configuration could the EU face internationally in 2035, and how can it prepare for this? In today’s uncertain and complex world, it is of great strategic importance for decision-makers to prepare for different futures. In a scenario process, we therefore worked with the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and experts from business, academia and politics to develop six scenarios for the world (dis)order in 2035, which differ in the number of power centres and the degree of stability. In this process, we also identified four fields of action applicable to all scenarios. If the EU takes consistent, collective and, above all, immediate action in these fields, this will best prepare the EU to assert itself as an, at least partially, independent actor capable of taking action in different international configurations by 2035. The scenarios should not be taken as concrete forecasts or predictions. Rather, they aim to serve as a strategic tool for decision-makers and anyone concerned with the world of tomorrow, to explore different possible futures and sound out their own scope for action.