Abiotic resource assessment of infrastructure for energy transition paths - analysis of methods and case study

The energy transition aims to reduce dependence on fossil energy carriers but entails substantial resource requirements, potentially leading to adverse impacts on various mineral resource-related aspects. The UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative Task Force on Mineral Resources has recommended six methods to assess distinct impact pathways in the context of resource use: Abiotic Depletion Potential ultimate reserves (ADP u.r. ), Abiotic Depletion Potential economic reserves (ADP e.r. ), Surplus Ore Potential (SOP), Life-cycle Impact assessment Method based on Endpoint modeling 2 (LIME2), Cumulative Exergy Extraction from the Natural Environment (CEENE), and the integrated method to assess resource efficiency (ESSENZ). This study aims to evaluate these methods for assessing abiotic resource use associated with infrastructure development under Germany’s energy transition across four potential transition paths. The projected material demand until 2045 includes up to 407 million metric tons of sand and gravel, 144 million metric tons of iron, and 171 million metric tons of crude oil. However, the materials with the highest absolute masses do not appear among the hotspots identified by any of the applied methods. There is not one transition path that can be clearly favored over the others regarding its impact, as various resource aspects influence each path differently. The results show that some methods indicate similar hotspots although each method covers a different perspective on resource assessment. A mutual gap for all the methods in the context of resource assessment for transition paths is that changes over time are not comprehensively reflected in the static characterization factors the methods supply.