D3.3 - Quantified ex-post impacts of trade in terrestrial biomass on biodiversity

International trade in agricultural products is frequently linked to forest loss in highly biodiverse regions. Beyond local factors, the emergence of global commodity supply chains has highlighted the significant influence of demand-side factors from distant consumption areas. While international trade can indeed have adverse effects on biodiversity, it is not always detrimental. Trade can yield positive outcomes through increased efficiency in agricultural production systems, shifts in comparative advantage, or technological innovations, which may offset or neutralize negative impacts. However, the relationship is highly complex, particularly when considering the multidimensional nature of biodiversity. For instance, shifting production to more efficient regions may reduce overall biodiversity loss but could severely impact endemism if such reallocation occurs in habitats hosting endemic species.Translating forest loss into biodiversity loss is a non-trivial task, as biodiversity dimensions often exhibit non-linear relationships and are influenced by distinct mechanisms. To address this, we build upon previous work in biodiversity modelling from WP2 to assess the effects of policies and trade dynamics on various biodiversity dimensions. Rather than solely examining deforestation as an outcome, we analyse the interplay between trade, deforestation and species richness, endemism, and phylogenetic diversity.The net impact of trade on biodiversity - whether positive or negative - depends heavily on policy regimes and macro-economic determinants that shape demand-supply linkages. These mechanisms include demand-side preferences for deforestation-free products, supply chain initiatives promoting sustainable intensification practices, local environmental enforcement, among other factors. This complexity underscores the urgent need for holistic approaches to better understand the trade-driven impacts on biodiversity. In this deliverable, we address the following research question: under which conditions, and across which dimensions, can trade have positive or negative impacts on biodiversity?