Do area-based initiatives improve perceived safety? Evidence from marginalized neighborhoods in Gothenburg using synthetic control method

The negative effects of living in marginalized neighborhoods characterized by concentrated poverty and social exclusion on individuals' life chances have long been a concern for politicians, policymakers, practitioners, and academia. These neighborhoods are frequently targeted with investments as part of area-based initiatives (ABIs) to mitigate potential negative neighborhood effects. The safety perception of the built environment has become a fundamental driver of ABIs to improve urban safety in marginalized areas. Previous studies have mostly focused on evaluating area-based initiatives from sociodemographic changes using large units of analysis that may obscure low-level patterns. This study examines ABIs led by municipal housing companies in Gothenburg, Sweden, using property-level longitudinal data from 2015 to 2024. Synthetic control method was applied to estimate impacts on two perceived safety measures at both the property and DeSO (Demographic Statistical Area) levels, using untreated areas/properties as control. The results indicate that ABIs have limited short-term effects on safety perception, but among long-term residents (those living the area for more than five years), perceptions of safety in the basement improved. This suggests that the impact of ABIs depends on whether or not the residents have experienced the change. The analysis also reveals spatial variation, with more pronounced effects observed at the DeSO level than at the property level. These findings underscore the importance of spatial scale and residential time in evaluating the impact of ABIs. • Examines the effects of area-based initiatives (ABIs) by housing companies on perceived safety • Analyzes two types of perceived safety measures across two spatial scales (DeSO and property level) • Finds little evidence of short-term effects of ABIs on perceived safety • Positive effects were observed among long-term residents regarding perceived safety in the basement • Reveals spatial heterogeneity in the results, underscoring the importance of scale in evaluating ABI outcomes