The effects of conflicts on the consumption and production of cassava: a comparative study of the northeast and southeast of Nigeria

This study investigates the effects of conflicts on both the production and consumption of cassava, a major crop crucial for rural development and food security due to its high carbohydrate content. Cassava is also an essential raw material for many industries. While numerous studies have examined the impact of conflicts on crops, most focus on aggregate production or consumption, and the findings on cassava production have been mixed. However, to our knowledge, no research has specifically explored the effects of conflicts on cassava consumption per capita, highlighting the need for a more systematic analysis. This paper addresses that gap by examining how conflicts influence both the demand and supply of cassava among households in different regions. In particular, it investigates the effects of conflicts on cassava production and per capita consumption in northeast and southeast Nigeria, adopting the novel perspective that these effects may differ between the two regions. A fixed-effect model was employed using three waves of household panel data merged with conflict data recorded in local government areas (LGAs) or within a 5 km radius of the households. Our results show that an increase in fatalities within local government areas decreases cassava consumption per capita and production in the Southeast of Nigeria. However, an increase in fatalities within a 5 km radius of households leads to increased cassava production and decrease cassava consumption in the Southeast. These results differ from the findings in Northeast Nigeria. The findings underscore the need for region-specific strategies, targeted interventions, and improved rural–urban accessibility. For instance, enhancing security in cassava-producing areas, particularly in the Southeast, is essential. Farmers, especially in the Southeast, are also advised to locate their Cassava farms closer to their homes to minimise the risks associated with distant farming.