Drivers and Spatial Patterns of Burned Area in High-Andean Páramos

Páramos, high-mountain tropical ecosystems, are crucial for carbon storage and water regulation for many Andean cities. However, they are subjected to wildland fires that threaten the ecosystem services they provide. Fire activity varies substantially among páramos, making it essential to understand the drivers of this spatial variability. This study evaluates the relative influence of anthropogenic and biophysical factors on fire occurrence in Colombian páramos, analyzing burned area data from 2000 to 2022 using a Random Forest model. Results indicate that fire occurrence is shaped by the interaction between human pressures and biophysical characteristics. Annual precipitation was the most influential predictor: areas with lower mean annual precipitation (<1000–1500 mm/year) were linked to greater burned area. Vegetation cover, assessed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), showed a hump-shaped relationship, with intermediate greenness levels (0.13–0.25) being most prone to burning. Anthropogenic factors, especially proximity to buildings and agricultural zones, also had a significant impact. Our results show that fire occurrence in páramos cannot be attributed solely to human pressures but results from the combined effect of anthropogenic and biophysical drivers. Understanding of these interactions underscores the need for socio-ecological perspectives to guide integrated and adaptive management of strategic high-mountain ecosystems.