Systematic rise in flight cancellations during space weather events

Solar activity can significantly influence the performance and reliability of both space-borne and ground-based technological systems on Earth. This phenomenon, known as space weather, can impact modern aviation operations through complex and highly interconnected mechanisms, presenting a challenging area of study. Until now, no systematic investigation has explored the influence of space weather on flight cancellations outside of specific polar routes. By analyzing ~ 5 million flight departure records from 5 hub airports in China between 2015 and 2019, a period spanning the declining phase and subsequent minimum of Solar Cycle 24, we provide the first evidence of a systematic increase in flight cancellations during space weather events. Our comparative analysis reveals that the average cancellation rate during space weather events, specifically Solar Flares, Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Proton Events, was 96.96% higher than during quiet periods. Counter-intuitively, Stream Interaction Regions showed no increase and even a slight decrease in cancellation rates. Additionally, investigations on geomagnetic-ionospheric disturbances reveal a quasi-linear relation between the rate of flight cancellations and the magnitude of perturbations. Such increased flight cancellations persist even when accounting for other factors, such as the seasonal effects. These findings imply that disruptions in communication and navigation systems during space weather events can significantly impact modern aviation operations, leading to more frequent flight cancellations. The superposed epoch analysis uncovers a well-defined temporal response curve of cancellation rates to independent space weather events. The correlations observed suggest that prolonged flight delays induced by space weather may be another important driver of the increased cancellation rates. This research expands the conventional understanding of space weather’s impact on aviation and it implies the importance of integrating space weather as a systematic factor in flight operations and planning, which may also help improve aviation efficiency and safety.