Climate change impacts and adaptations in Eastern and Western Africa crop production systems: lessons and transferable models among smallholder farmers

Climate change is a growing threat severely impacting crop production and productivity in East and West Africa. However, evidence comparing the nature of the impact and adaptive measures between the regions is scarce. This scientific research primarily focuses on characterizing patterns of crop production and productivity, reviewing the climate change impacts on crop production systems, and assessing existing adaptation mechanisms in East and West Africa, with the overall arching goal of accelerating the adoption of climate-smart tools within and between sub-regions. Moreover, to complement our understanding of the future climate dynamics, we projected the mid- and long-term rainfall and temperature patterns for selected countries in each sub-region under two emission scenarios. Our analysis reveals a critical divergence: East Africa faces consistent warming, with hotspots in Somalia and Eritrea projecting rises of up to 5.5°C, while West Africa’s northern Mali could see extreme increases of up to 6.5°C. Rainfall projections further highlight this contrast; East African highlands may become wetter (up to 450 mm increase), benefiting some crops but increasing flood risk, whereas West Africa exhibits stark spatial variability, with areas like Guinea-Bissau projecting severe drying (up to 400 mm decrease) and central Nigeria becoming wetter. Under the future climate, most studies predicted the loss of productivity of major crops. These climatic divergences drive distinct agricultural threats: in East Africa’s key risks include yield reduction of up to 72% in wheat and as much as 40% in highland coffee, whereas in West Africa the major staple crop maize is projected to experience yield declines of around 40%. Yet, the wide inconsistency among studies regarding the magnitude of temperatures and rainfall changes, and their subsequent impact on crop productivity, underscore the need to focus on localized climate effects. We have assessed the presence of wide arrays of promising climate smart adaptive measures in the crop sector, which aligns with the mission of reducing GHG emissions. However, the adoption of successful approaches is minimal, stressing tailored adaptation strategies that cater to the unique challenges posed by climate change in East and West Africa sub-regions.