Cultural innovation driven nonlinear impact: New quality productivity and cultural consumption’s high-carbon trap

Against global net-zero carbon goals and China's "dual carbon" goals, cultural consumption remains trapped in a high-carbon trap (HCT), hindering the sustainable development of environmental and social systems. Using benchmark regression and a mediating effect model, this study explores how new quality productivity (NQP) impacts carbon emissions from cultural consumption. Findings reveal a non-linear "first promoting, then inhibiting" effect of NQP on such emissions. It is worth noting that cultural innovation (CI) serves as a transmission mechanism through which NQP exerts an inverted U-shaped relationship on the HCT in cultural consumption. In addition, energy transition (ET) plays a regulatory role in the inverted U-shaped outcome, which can enhance the inhibitory effect of NQP on carbon emissions from cultural consumption. Overall, this study extends the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory to cultural consumption, offering causal insights and actionable policy implications for the sustainable transformation of environment-social systems.