Who pollutes more? The influence of human development and its economic and social dimensions on non-greenhouse gas air pollutant emissions in the arab world

Abstract There is limited understanding of how human development influences non–greenhouse gas (non-GHG) air pollutant emissions, particularly within the Arab world—a region of significant geopolitical importance. Addressing this gap is crucial to determining who pollutes more, a key issue in distributing environmental harm and responsibility, and central to environmental sustainability and justice. This study contributes to filling that gap by analyzing data on five non-GHG air pollutants—carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 )—together with four human development indicators: the Human Development Index (HDI), a composite measure of overall development; the Gross National Income Index (GNII), reflecting economic progress; the Education Index (EI), representing educational attainment; and the Life Expectancy Index (LEI), measuring health outcomes. Using panel data from 16 Arab countries spanning 1990 to 2022, the study applies compound annual growth rate analysis and fixed effects econometric modeling. The main objectives are twofold: (1) to examine the temporal evolution of total emissions per capita alongside human development indicators, and (2) to assess the influence of human development indicators on total emissions per capita. The results show wide disparities in total emissions per capita and human development indicators across Arab countries, with fixed effects models explaining part of the variation but also highlighting the complex, multidimensional nature of the emissions–development relationship. Higher overall human development is generally associated with lower emissions; however, its components exert distinct effects. Economic growth tends to increase emissions, whereas improvements in education and health contribute to reducing them. Countries experiencing strong economic growth but weaker social development emit more, while those with balanced progress across income, education, and health emit less. These findings highlight the importance of integrated and equitable development strategies to advance environmental sustainability and justice in the Arab region.