Assessing Flood Susceptibility Using a Data-Driven, GIS-Based Frequency Ratio Model

Flooding is one of the major natural disasters that have a major impact on urban areas due to the increasing intensity of factors like extreme weather conditions, climate change, and unplanned urbanization. Considering Cook County, Illinois, the rapid development of the region, flat topography, and the induced rainfall extremes from climate change increase the potential risk of flooding when interacting with dense urban exposure and infrastructure. This study employed the Frequency Ratio (FR) model in a GIS environment to create a high-resolution flood susceptibility map of the county. The map was developed using 281 historical flood points collected from several authoritative sources, such as National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Events Database records, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Study (FIS) and Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM)-based FIRMette products, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) flood-inundation studies. Thirteen conditioning factors, including land use, elevation, slope, soil drainage, rainfall, and distance to the stream, were used to calculate FR values and to develop the Flood Susceptibility Index (FSI). The resulting FSI was grouped into four susceptibility zones: low, medium, high, and very high. The findings indicated that more than 64% of Cook County has a high and very high risk of flood susceptibility, particularly in the vicinity of major river corridors. The model was validated using testing data with a 91.4% prediction accuracy, which also demonstrated the reliability and applicability of the FR model in the urban flood susceptibility assessment. The map serves as a valuable tool for risk-based urban planning and design of flood mitigation infrastructure in one of the most populated counties in the United States.