Assessing the potential environmental benefits of PVC waste recycling in China toward carbon neutrality

Abstract Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) releases chlorine containing organic components into the environment without proper disposal. Effective PVC waste management is therefore critical for pollution and emission mitigation. However, provincial-level evidence of PVC waste management in China remains limited, and the impacts of social and technological contexts on regional practices are still not well understood. This study focuses on the environmental footprints and mitigation potential of PVC waste management across various provinces by integrating material flow analysis and life cycle assessment in China from 2020 to 2050, explicitly capturing provincial heterogeneity in waste generation, treatment rates, and electricity structure. Mechanical recycling is identified as the most sustainable PVC waste treatment method, although its effectiveness is constrained by high contamination rates in construction-related PVC waste. With the expansion of renewable energy, chemical recycling is projected to become more competitive than energy recovery after 2025, particularly in northeastern and western provinces. Under largest renewable energy expansion scenario, the environmental footprints projected for 2050 include a carbon footprint of 1.14 Mt CO 2 -eq/yr, human health of 6.36 × 10 3 DALY/yr, resource depletion of -5.33 × 10 9 USD/yr, and ecosystem quality of 9.30 species∙yr. Province-specific mitigation potentials are strongly dependent on PVC waste composition, treatment capacity, and local energy policies. For the circulation of regenerated materials in various provinces, electric vehicles have emerged as a more viable low-carbon option than diesel-powered ones for transporting increased volumes of recycled products. These findings demonstrate that differentiated provincial strategies, alongside strengthened waste sorting and renewable energy integration, are essential for optimizing PVC waste management and advancing China’s circular economy transition.