Spatial and temporal preferences for afternoon precipitation over morning soil moisture in global storm-resolving simulations

Abstract This study firstly examines both spatial and temporal preferences for afternoon precipitation over morning soil moisture using global storm-resolving simulations from two state-of-the-art km-scale Earth system models: the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) and integrated forecasting system (IFS). These results are compared with coarse-resolution simulations from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Our analysis reveals distinct preference patterns across the models. In ICON with resolved convection, afternoon precipitation is likely to develop over drier soil than the surrounding areas with high heterogeneity, possibly suggesting that mesoscale circulation plays a crucial role. Temporal preferences for afternoon precipitation vary across regions. In contrast, IFS with partially parameterized convection, intended to increase convective system size, shows a preference for temporally drier-than-normal soils, but no spatial preference, implying a strong influence of large-scale coupling. MPI-ESM with fully parameterized convection demonstrates an opposite pattern, favoring wetter soil than the surrounding areas, consistent with previous studies.