Economic Analysis of the Behavior of Prices and Market Arrivals of Tomatoes—A Case Study of West Bengal, India

The oscillations in prices and arrivals of agricultural goods are primarily influenced by the seasonal character of the agricultural production system. Here, we investigate the trends and seasonal price dynamics concerning market arrivals of tomatoes in West Bengal, India. Monthly data on arrivals and prices of tomatoes were collected for the period between 2013–14 and 2019–20. Both the ordinary least square and the twelve-month moving average techniques were employed to identify the long-term trends and seasonal variations in price and arrival patterns. The market arrivals exhibit negative trends in three markets, except for Barasat and Bardhaman, where the observed values are not statistically significant. However, the lone market in Diamond Harbour shows a positive and significant trend in arrivals. Regarding current prices, all markets, except for Chakdah and Siliguri, exhibit positive and significant trends. Seasonality is more prominent in market arrivals than the price for all the markets. Results suggest the variability in arrivals is proportional to the amount of arrivals in the market, in turn, larger arrivals lead to higher variability. Price variations are substantial and exhibit relative stability both within and across markets, unlike arrivals which show more fluctuation. Price fluctuations are significant not only within a given year but also between different years. Additionally, an inverse relationship between current prices and market arrivals suggests as arrivals increase, prices tend to decrease and vice versa. The study provides new insights into the trends in market arrivals and seasonal price dynamics of tomatoes in West Bengal, eastern India.