Spatio-Temporal Changes in Carbon Sequestration by Coastal Ecosystems in Ibeju Lekki, Lagos, Nigeria

The rapid urbanisation of coastal areas presents significant challenges to the delicate balance between development and ecosystem conservation. This tension is particularly evident in Ibeju Lekki, Lagos, Nigeria, as the region undergoes a dramatic transformation. This study investigates spatio-temporal changes in carbon sequestration in coastal ecosystems in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos, Nigeria, from 1986 to 2024. Employing a mixed-methods approach that combines geospatial analysis, field surveys, and stakeholder interviews, the research examines the impacts of rapid urbanisation on ecosystem health and carbon storage capacity. Landsat imagery and carbon pool data were analysed to quantify changes in land use and carbon stocks over the 38 years. The study reveals a substantial 22.57% reduction in total carbon storage, from approximately 23.25 million megagrams in 1986 to 18 million megagrams in 2024. This decline corresponds with significant land use changes, including a decrease in dense vegetation cover from 32.64% to 21.50% and an expansion of built-up areas from 14.25% to 19.73% of the total land area. Swamp forests and mangrove ecosystems experienced the most severe depletion, with urban development identified as the primary driver of change. The research highlights the lack of comprehensive ecosystem management strategies and proposes recommendations for sustainable development, including the implementation of Payment for Ecosystem Services models and stricter zoning regulations.